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Analysis, News & Rumors

Archives

September 2005 Headlines
Nomar Sticking Around? - 9/28/05 9:43pm
Last Goal - Finish Above .500 - 9/24/05 8:53am
Was Sosa on Steroids? - 9/22/05 10:37pm
Position Analysis - Catcher - 9/20/05 12:29pm
Position Analysis - Bullpen - 9/15/05 9:45pm
Position Analysis - Starting Pitching - 9/11/05 8:51pm
10 Reasons to Dump Patterson - 9/10/05 11:18pm
Cubs Own Cards - 9/9/05 5:25pm
Position Analysis - Closer - 9/6/05 8:51pm
Take Another Chance on Nomar? - 9/4/05 2:21pm


9/28/05 9:43pm - Nomar Sticking Around?

The new rumor at Wrigley Field is that the Cubs may be interested in keeping Nomar around next year, but it may not be what you think.

Since the Cubs have an interest in Rafael Furcal and are also interested in Ronny Cedeno, fans would expect Nomar to be gone, but things could work out so that the Cubs would get all three players in 2006.

The Cubs may offer Nomar the same type of contract he had this year, which would give him incentives on several things including the amount of plate appearances he had. They may also ask him to switch to a different position. Some think that they could ask him to move to the outfield.

Moving Nomar to the outfield would open up shortstop for Rafael Furcal if he was to be signed during the off-season. The Cubs have also shown interest in introducing Ronny Cedeno to second base. With Todd Walker's future as a Cubs uncertain, Cedeno could be asked to fill that role.

Imaging Cedeno at second base, Furcal at shortstop, and Nomar in right field! The Cubs love Nomar's bat and may be hoping he can stay healthy in 2006.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/24/05 8:53am - Last Goal - Finish Above .500

The Cubs only have one goal left in 2005. Failing to reach most of their other goals, all the Cubs can hope for is to have a winning season.

Currently at 76-78, the Cubs are in 4th place in the National League Central division, trailing the Cardinals (96-59), Astros (84-70), and Brewers (76-77).

Since the Cubs are out of contention, the club has focused on preparing for 2006. With 8 games remaining, the Cubs have 6 against Houston and 2 against Pittsburgh.

The only good news is that in the month of September, the Cubs are 13-8. Finishing above .500 and completing the season playing well will prepare them for 2006. It has also given the Cubs the opportunity to see some of their rookies and determine who may or may not be around next year.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/22/05 10:37pm - Was Sosa on Steroids?

Cubs fans have quickly forgot about Sammy Sosa after his departure. Looking at his past and present, one has to wonder if Sosa was involved with steroids at one point or another in his career.

Earlier this year, Sammy Sosa was part of a panel of current and past Major League Baseball stars who were questioned during congressional hearings about performance enhancing drugs in Major League Baseball. Sosa along with Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and others testified that they had not used steroids. The inquiries came after former star, Jose Canseco, admitted to using steroids and also said that he had openly used steroids with other players.

Looking back at Sosa's career, there is a drastic increase in power starting around the mid 90's.

YearAt-BatsHome RunsHomers / At-Bats
1990532152.82%
1991316103.16%
199226283.05%
1993598335.52%
1994426255.87%
1995564366.38%
1996498408.03%
1997642365.61%
19986436610.26%
19996256310.08%
2000604508.28%
20015776411.09%
2002556498.81%
2003517407.74%
2004478357.32%
2005380143.68%

Over the years, you can see a dramatic size difference. In the late 80's Sosa was skinny and didn't look as muscular as he did in the mid 90's. In the past few years, it is obvious that he has lost some weight, but he is still larger than he was early in his career.

During the time of the home-run race with Mark McGwire, Sosa was hitting homers more than 1 out of every 10 times at bat. Some have argued that the baseball itself was altered during this time, which allowed the ball to travel much further than it did in the past. Others suggest this was the peak of the steroid usage in Major League Baseball where mediocre hitters were hitting 30 to 50 homers each year.

This year, fans have to question Sosa's performance. Only hitting 14 homers with a 3.68% home run to at-bat ratio makes it seem like something has drastically changed. Lately, over the past few years, Sosa has landed on the DL with injuries related to his foot and back. The cause of these injuries was strange as Sosa once sneezed and landed on the DL because of a strained back. Could age and durability be playing a part?

Today, it was reported that Rafael Palmeiro told a three-member arbitration panel that a teammate gave him a substance that may have been responsible for his positive test for steroids. Like Sosa testified, Palmeiro also told congress he didn't use steroids. Sosa is Palmeiro's teammate. In a normal trial, circumstantial evidence is not enough to convict a criminal, but in the world of professional baseball and their fans, its quite fishy.

- Jim  |  Return


9/20/05 12:29pm - Position Analysis - Catcher

Something has to be said about how well the Cubs pitching staff did with Henry Blanco behind the plate.

With Blanco, the Cubs pitchers had a 3.57 ERA, but with Michael Barrett, the Cubs pitchers had a 4.52 ERA. This could be a fluke, but it could also mean that Blanco is a much better game-caller than Barrett is. On the other hand, Barrett was much better with the bat this year as he batted .276 with 15 homers and 57 RBI's. Blanco is batting .247 with 6 homers and 25 RBI's.

Neither hitter has done well with runners in scoring position with 2 outs. Barrett has batted .239 and Blanco is batting .158. When you factor in any runner on base, Blanco has had the upper hand by batting .290, while Barrett is hitting .287.

One of the things that hurt Blanco was that he was only hitting .180 for the first three months of the season. If he had more playing time, he may start to hit better, but its no secret that Barrett would be the better offensive weapon.

Over the past few years, there has also been some question whether the starting pitching gets along well with Barrett. Rumors have been going around that Barrett may have taken some blame for how the Cubs played in 2004. Could the same be said for 2005?

Both Blanco and Barrett are signed for 2006, so could you expect to see Blanco behind the plate more? With the focus on starting pitching there is a good possibility this will happen.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/15/05 9:45pm - Position Analysis - Bullpen

The key to the Cubs success in 2006 will be their bullpen. This is the place where Jim Hendry will focus his free-agent search.

2005 has been a huge disappointment for the bullpen. Players like Latroy Hawkins, Mike Remlinger, and Joe Borowski were expected to step up. Instead, they were dropped or traded.

The rest of the bullpen has been built upon the arms of young pitchers like Michael Wuertz and Will Ohman. Both have played very will, but have had issues finding the strike zone.

These young pitchers look very promising, but the Cubs will need veteran pitchers who will not fold under the pressure. Hawkins and Borowski are now pitching well with other teams under less pressure.

With a 4.36 bullpen ERA, the Cubs are 20th in the league behind a league leading Cleveland Indians at a bullpen ERA of 2.88. The Chicago White Sox are second with a 3.12 ERA. The Cubs are one of the worse teams in baseball with 218 walks from bullpen pitchers, but they are among the best with 414 strike-outs.

For 2006, the Cubs need to focus on getting bullpen help who will throw strikes and not fall to the pressures of pitching in the Cubs bullpen. Expect Jim Hendry to bolster the bullpen for next year.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/11/05 8:51pm - Position Analysis - Starting Pitching

2005 has been a nightmare for fans who thought Kerry Wood and Mark Prior would be as dominant as they were in the 2003 playoffs.

The starting 3 pitchers all had high expectations in 2005. Wood wanted to prove that he was worth every penny the Cubs were paying him. Unfortunately, his shoulder problems sidelined him. Mark Prior Though he ended the season at 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA, he showed his dominant form when he filled in the bullpen before his surgery.

Prior was expected to return from in injury plagued 2004 season. Instead, he was injured again for a good part of the season joining Kerry Wood on the DL. Prior, currently at 11-5 with a 3.64 ERA, will give us something to look forward to next year as he has shown that he can bounce back from these injuries.

Zambrano was the pitcher that most experts thought would win the most games. This year was the year he was suppose to mature and turn into the ace of the staff. Now at 13-5 with a 3.18 ERA, Zambrano has pitched great, but still shows signs of immaturity. Several small injuries also have nagged him this season.

Greg Maddux has been consistent as usual. He can just about guarantee 15 wins each season. This season he is 12-11 with a 4.28 ERA. This year would be the 18th season of at least 15 wins for Maddux if he reaches that plateau. With 4-5 starts left, Dusty Baker will give him every opportunity to do just that.

Between injuries and the 5th spot, many different pitchers have stepped up. Glendon Rusch, Jerome Williams, Sergio Mitre, Rich Hill, John Koronka, John Leicester, and even Ryan Dempster have been used in starting roles. Jerome Williams has been the player who has maintained the 5th spot. Williams has been on and off with a 5-8 record and a 4.52 ERA.

After Kerry Wood was sent to the bullpen to save his arm, Glendon Rusch was asked to fill his spot. The starting rotation is now Zambrano, Maddux, Prior, Williams, and Rusch. What could happen next year?

Both Zambrano and Prior will be back next year to fill the top two spots. Kerry Wood, currently rehabbing from successful shoulder surgery will hope to return to the rotation to fill the third spot. Friends of Greg Maddux have hinted that he will want to return for one more season.

Will the Cubs plan to bring up Rich Hill or John Koronka to fill the 5th spot? Jerome Williams has shown that he can be capable of filling the 5th spot. Glendon Rusch and Sergio Mitre can fill a starting role, but have been decent as long relievers. Leicester is still trying to find his groove, but needs more time to adjust to the majors. Dempster found his calling as the closer.

The Cubs may also consider looking at reliable free agents to fill in at the 4th or 5th starting spot. Due to all the injuries to the starting rotation in the past few years, this may not be a bad plan. The Cubs will also have plenty of money to do just this. It could be possible that a rotation of Zambrano, Prior, A.J. Burnett, Wood, and Maddux are seen in 2006.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/10/05 11:18pm - 10 Reasons to Dump Patterson

This headline is a little deceiving. There are actually quite a few more reasons to dump Corey Patterson, but here is a summary.

10. His defense isn't as great as people think - ok his range is good, but he throws like a girl.

9. He can't bunt - he has tried this past year, but by now he should have mastered this with his speed.

8. Cubs have invested too much time already - His value won't get any higher and they continue to believe he will learn to have more discipline.

7. Pie is waiting - Pie isn't a lead-off guy, but he can play center and is a great prospect.

6. Plenty of free agents available - Damon or Pierre could fill center field or the Cubs could put Pie in center and get Furcal to lead-off.

5. He has 539 career hits, 536 career strikeouts, and 108 career walks - That is amazing.

4. He shows no emotion - If he showed some anger after striking out, fans would know he has a pulse.

3. Fans may run him out of town - Fans are sick of him and sick of Dusty Baker and Jim Hendry sticking up for him. Enough of the 5-tool player talk!

2. He swings at everything - He doesn't take pitches and usually falls to 0-2 immediately.

1. He has to do what's best for himself - His recent comments about playing Winter ball say it all.

Lets face it, Corey Patterson needs a change of scenery. He is going to balk at the request to play Winter ball. For what reasons, we can't be sure, but to fans it looks like Patterson's ego has grown too large.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/9/05 5:25pm - Cubs Own Cards

Why is it that the Cubs seem to beat the good teams but lose to the teams the should beat?

With an 8-4 record against the Cardinals, you would think the Cubs would be a playoff contending team. They have already played 4 series together and look to play one more series later this month.

In April, they split 1-1. They took 2 out of 3 in July and then took 3 out of 4 in August. Last week they took 2 out of 3 again from their rivals.

Cardinal fans will continue to point at the current standings, but Cubs fans can be happy with the head-to-head record for now.

- Jim  |  Return


9/6/05 8:51pm - Position Analysis - Closer

It didn't happen immediately, but the Cubs solved one problem that has plagued the Cubs for several years. They found a solid closer in Ryan Dempster.

Early in spring training, the Cubs were hoping Joe Borowski could return to the closer spot. Unfortunately, Borowski's velocity was down and he landed on the DL. This once again moved Latroy Hawkins into the closer spot. This was doomed to fail.

At the same time, Ryan Dempster's name had been thrown around, but due to injuries to the starting rotation, Dempster had to fill the 5th starter position. After 7 started games, Dempster had a 5.71 ERA.

After the failed Hawkins experiment, Dempster began his closing duties. He blew his first save, but recorded the win. Currently, he has 22 saves with a 3.66 ERA. He has blown 2 saves, but recorded wins in both of those games. During his most recent save on September 4th, Ryan struck out all three batters in the ninth.

Dempster is being paid $2M for 2005, but will be a free agent in 2006. The Cubs will more than likely re-sign Dempster, but don't be surprised if they inquire about free agent, Billy Wagner. Dempster has been great as the Cubs closer in 2005, but you can be certain the Cubs would be interested in getting Wagner if the price is right. B.J. Ryan will also be available and will serve as a cheaper option than Wagner. Kerry Wood may also be considered, but since he is currently rehabbing from his surgery, the Cubs will make every effort to send him back to the starting rotation.

In this case, Dempster could be moved to a setup man or worked into the bullpen into another role.

- Bryan  |  Return


9/4/05 2:21pm - Take Another Chance on Nomar?

Since Nomar has arrived in Chicago, he has been battling to prove himself. If he can stay healthy, he has shown that he is still a solid player.

Nomar has missed most of 2005 and has proven in the past that he isn't too durable. During the last month, he has stayed healthy, played both shortstop and third base, and batted .320. In the last 6 days, he has showed his power by hitting 4 homers.

The injury to Aramis Ramirez may not have been a bad thing for the club as the Cubs now have the ability to see Ronny Cedeno and see if Nomar can stay healthy.

Because of his injury problems, Nomar's price tag may not be too high next year. Could the Cubs try to sign him again for another year? For $4-5M it wouldn't be that bad of an idea. The problem is that if Nomar was to come back next year and landed on the DL again, Jim Hendry and the Cubs management would take some major heat from the Cubs Nation.

On the other hand, Ronny Cedeno could blow up for the rest of the season. If this is the case, the Cubs won't invest in Nomar again. Cedeno has raised his average to .304 and had 3 multi-hit games in the last 5 days.

The Cubs will probably re-sign Neifi Perez in 2006 as he will be an inexpensive option as a backup for 2nd base, shortstop, and third base. Figuring Perez is resigned and Cedeno continues to be hot, it may not be likely that the Cubs would ask Nomar to return next year.

At this point, Nomar is playing for a contract. Whether that is with or without the Cubs remains to be seen.

- Bryan  |  Return



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